- Though the odds favor the Democrats winning by 10 electoral votes, there are other options based on swing states voting.
- States like Pennsylvania and Georgia will have the largest sway on the electoral margin of victory.
PHILADELPHIA – Based on the current election odds, Kamala Harris is projected to win 274 electoral votes to the Republicans' 264 electoral votes.
As Florida, Montana and North Carolina all gained one electoral vote from 2020, Colorado and Oregon, consistently blue states also gained one electoral vote, negating much of a Republican advantage. Likewise, California, Illinois, and New York lost one electoral vote to balance a drop by Ohio and West Virginia as well.
But, the real focus is on swing states like Pennsylvania. It’s here how the election odds on the margin of victory will be impacted.
Swing State Election Odds
| State | Democrat Odds | Republican Odds | Electoral Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona (AZ) | +120 | -160 | 11 |
| Georgia (GA) | +120 | -160 | 16 |
| North Carolina (NC) | +120 | -160 | 16 |
| Pennsylvania (PA) | -130 | EVEN | 19 |
| Wisconsin (WI) | -170 | +130 | 10 |
| Nevada (NV) | -120 | -110 | 6 |
These swing states will be crucial in determining how the final margin plays out. Before applying these states, the presidential election odds support 239 votes for the Democrats and 221 votes for the Republicans.
What happens over the next 78 votes is the breakdown.
Republican Odds For Electoral College Victory Margin
- GOP 65 - 104 (+550)
- GOP 35 - 64 (+625)
- GOP 15 - 34 (+850)
- GOP 105 - 154 (+1400)
- GOP 5 - 14 (+1800)
- GOP 1 - 4 (+3000)
- GOP 155 - 214 (+3000)
- GOP 215+ (+3500)
Those supporting the Republicans might find trouble going after the favorites. Though a win of 65-104 votes is atop, they would need to flip all six of the swing states and more. Winning all six states above brings them to a margin of +60 (299-239).
A better option going closer to a smaller margin. A GOP victory of 35-64 and 15-34 are manageable, but the +1800 odds at 5-14 seem too easy to pass up.
- Trump Wins: Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina
- Kamala Wins: Wisconsin, Georgia, and Nevada
- The final count would be 273 for the Republicans and 265 for the Democrats
- This results in a margin of victory of 8 electoral votes for the Republicans.
For further belief, the downward trend since 1912 of the electoral vote margin by election shows how close elections have gotten in recent years.
Democrat Margin Of Victory Odds
For Dems to hit the favorite, they must win all of their current favored states and flip at least 7-8 swing states. At high expectations, these odds are slightly inflated.
Democrat Odds For Electoral College Margin
- DEM 65 - 104 (+315)
- DEM 35 - 64 (+500)
- DEM 15 - 34 (+700)
- DEM 105 - 154 (+1200)
- DEM 0 - 4 (+1400)
- DEM 5 - 14 (+1400)
- DEM 155 - 214 (+1500)
- DEM 215+ (+1500)
Winning by 65 votes or more includes the Dems winning all six swing states (+96 margin) or a few states less. But, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, it would only take him winning Arizona or North Carolina to bump a Democrat win into a smaller margin.
Instead, a closer matchup of 35-64 votes could be the target. This has the Democrats winning states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia (+42), leaving Arizona and North Carolina to the Republicans.
This target makes it seem that the Dems winning by 15-34 almost impossible. Despite the +700 odds, it would require the Democrats to win Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania (284-254) without also taking Arizona, Nevada, or North Carolina.
Those who are crazy might consider the Dems to win by 0-4. Despite the small range, it would be Kamala winning 271-267 by taking Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia and giving Trump Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Still, the electoral odds favor a Dem victory of 10 points, so taking DEM 5 - 14 (+1400) could also be the play.