- Election betting sites list Jon Tester as a large underdog to win the Montana Senate race.
- Republican challenger Tim Sheehy is a -700 odds favorite compared to Tester’s +450 odds.
- Montana could be a state the Republicans flip if Tester and the Democrats lose control.
BILLINGS, Mont. – As the 2024 Senate race in Montana is days from completion, the odds for Jon Tester are looking bleak. Once seen as a strong Democratic contender, Tester is now the clear underdog in a state where Republicans have gained a strong foothold.
The election odds reflect this shift, with Bovada listing Tester at +450, while Republican challenger Tim Sheehy is the heavy favorite ( -700) on BetOnline. Demonstrating how much of a challenge Tester faces in holding onto his seat, he’s relying on his three terms in the Senate to carry him.
Instead, Tim Sheehy is riding a wave of support from voters looking for fresh Republican leadership.
A recent FiveThirtyEight forecast suggests that Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate, and Montana is one of their prime targets. Polling shows Sheehy consistently ahead, and the Montana Senate race betting odds reflect this momentum.
Why the Odds Matter
The odds are not just numbers—they tell a story about public perception and market confidence. When sportsbooks price Sheehy at -700 and Tester at +450, they’re factoring in polling, campaign momentum, and the political climate in Montana.
For bettors, this presents an interesting dilemma: Is it worth the risk to back Tester at such high odds, or is Sheehy the safer bet despite the low returns?
For those who believe in political upsets, Tester's +450 odds may offer value. He has a track record of defying the odds, and his campaign has consistently emphasized his ability to connect with Montana voters on local issues.
However, Sheehy’s strong polling numbers and the broader national trend favoring Republicans make him the clear frontrunner in this race. While Montana isn’t typically viewed as a swing state in presidential elections, the Senate race is crucial for both parties in the battle for majority control.
Stay tuned to major sportsbooks like Bovada and BetOnline for updates on this race, as Senate election odds may shift closer to election day based on new polling or campaign developments.